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Sabine Zinn, Jutta Gampe, Jan Himmelspach, and Adelinde M Uhrmacher (2010)

A DEVS Model For Demographic Microsimulation

In: Spring Simulation Multi-Conference - Symposium on Theory of Modeling & Simulation - DEVS Integrative M&S Symposium (DEVS), pp. 146:1-146:8, New York, NY, USA, ACM.

Microsimulation is increasingly applied in demography to project the development of populations. A stochastic model is being introduced that describes individual life courses on a continuous time base. Life courses are determined by sequences of demographic events. We show how this demographic multi-state projection model can be specified as an atomic model in DEVS. Thereby, strengths but also limitations of this approach are revealed. The limitations are addressed by exploiting a DEVS variant that supports variable structures, i.e., dynPDEVS, and by modeling individuals as atomic models and the population as a network model. An example projection of a synthetical population based on the population of Italy shows the plausibility and the feasibility of the developed model.

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