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Svetoslav Nikolow, Bulgaria (in cooperation with WELISA)
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Mark Girolami, Glasgow, UK
| What | Invited talk |
|---|---|
| When |
2007-12-11 from 13:15 to 14:45 |
| Where | Dep. of Biology, R 204, Albert-Einstein-Str.3 |
| Contact Name | Professor M.A. Girolami F.I.E.T |
| Contact Phone | Tel : +44 (0)141 330 1623 |
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On Stratified Path Sampling of the Thermodynamic Integral: Computing Bayes Factors for Nonlinear ODE Models of Biochemical Pathways
Abstract:
Bayes factors provide a means of objectively ranking a number of plausible
statistical models based on their evidential support. Computing Bayes
factors is far from straightforward and methodology based on thermodynamic
integration can provide stable estimates of the marginal likelihood. This
talk will present a stratified path sampling strategy in estimating the
thermodynamic integral and will consider issues such as optimal paths and
the variance of the overall estimator in comparison to non-equilibrium
based
methods. The main motivation and application considered will be the
computation of Bayes factors for deterministic biochemical pathway models
based on systems of nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODE). A
large
scale study of the Extra-Cellular Regulated Kinase (ERK) pathway will be
discussed where recent Small Interfering RNA (siRNA) experimental
validation
of the predictions made using the computed Bayes factors is presented.
Preliminary work on a computationally economic posterior sampling strategy
for ODE models employing auxiliary Gaussian state and derivative processes
will also be presented.
First Prize at the Second International Biomodellling Competition Dagstuhl 2011